Investigative Principles for Intelligence Analysts

What can an intelligence analyst do?

OSINT has become increasingly sophisticated in both sources and methodologies. Information is emerging in unprecedented ways, including online expressions of personal emotion, photographs representing places and events, and public social and professional networks. The combination of computing power and data science techniques has made possible the preservation and processing of vast amounts of publicly available data. Machine learning, computer algorithms, and automated reasoning further expand the ability to analyze specific data, including processing information and discerning valuable intelligence.

Intelligence analysis must remain forward-looking and policy-relevant, providing the best forecasts possible. However, the analyst must focus more on getting the client to recognize the complexity and uncertainty of life, while also outlining the key factors of an issue and how they lead to different possible futures. The role of analysts is generally not to reduce uncertainty about potential future results but to inform clients of uncertainties and contingencies.

Armed with this analytical spirit, the analyst's next task is to educate policymakers about how their unique approach to national security issues can help them in their day-to-day work. Intelligence analysts can correct policymakers' misconception that intelligence committees have the ability to eliminate strategic surprises with access to classified information and experts. As Sherman Kent points out, we do not claim that our assessment is infallible. Instead, we claim that what we provide is "the most in-depth, objective, and carefully considered evaluation."

During an investigation, there are three principles to keep in mind to guide your investigation:

1. Analysis is evidence-driven

Lines of investigation without evidence always require rigorous analysis. Weak links in reasoning or holes in the chain of evidence can bring instability and holes to an investigation. The old saying, "A chain is only as strong as its weakest link," is especially true for investigations.

2. Perform key assumption checks

Performing such a check will help identify unsupported assumptions and explore how the conclusions of the investigation might change if those assumptions change. During this process, analysts can explore how to further strengthen key nodes in the investigation and increase confidence in the final assessment.

3. Avoid rushing to judgment

Analysts should take the time to ensure that due weight is given to any judgments. If judgments are made hastily, the analyst may run afoul of anchoring bias. Future attempts to revise this judgment based on new information or further analysis may result in analysts not changing their judgment sufficiently.