Analysis of intelligence always involves cognitive and social processes
Essentially, analysis is a cognitive activity.
Although
intelligence analysts often utilize technological assistance and input from others,
ultimately it is the human brain that organizes and interprets data to produce an
assessment or prediction. The intelligence community and academia have done
considerable work to identify the cognitive biases that can impair the validity of
analytical conclusions, and the heuristics that can help analysts do their jobs
efficiently and well.
Analytical work is a social process.
Of course, the conduct of intelligence analysis always involves
relationships with those who assign analysis tasks and receive analysis products.
Commentators and policymakers alike point out that when these relationships become
politicized, the validity of the analysis's conclusions can be threatened. A less
widely recognized fact is that the work of analysis is itself highly social.
Analysts who extract meaning from a set of data in isolation are the exception.
Instead, analysts typically draw heavily on the expertise, experience, and insights
of their colleagues when developing and testing their conclusions. As the volume and
variety of intelligence data increases, teamwork appears to be becoming more
prominent in the production of analytical reports.
Different
perspectives on analytical work have important implications for the design and
leadership of analytical units.
The cognitive perspective puts
the individual analyst center stage. Managers who hold this view tend to organize
work to encourage and support superior individual performance. They may pay special
attention to selecting talented analysts, training them well, and providing them
with sophisticated technical and informational support. Of course, analysts still
work in units where others do similar work, and individual contributions may be
aggregated into a unit-wide product. But everyone works in parallel, and each
analyst is responsible for his or her individual output. This unit is called a
synergy group. While members of a cooperative group typically communicate with each
other and consult extensively, this communication is primarily intended to help
individual members competently discharge their personal responsibilities.
In
contrast, the social perspective focuses more on the importance of team interaction
in effectively assessing uncertain data, dealing with porous datasets, and managing
relationships with those who provide data and those who receive analysis reports.
Managers who hold this view are likely to form interdependent work teams whose
members are collectively responsible for a major analytical effort. Since the work
is done by a team, it may be larger in scale and potential than any individual task
would normally do. Of course, members of work teams bring their own special
expertise to work, and over time develop specialized team roles—but it is the entire
team that produces the analytical product and is accountable for it.